Is Bitcoin's Market Regime Shifting?

Real-time BTC regime classification using RSI-14, 20-day realized volatility, and EMA-20 delta. Updated daily from on-chain and price data. Tells you whether Bitcoin is trending, ranging, or in turbulence mode so you can size positions accordingly.

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-100 Bearish0+100 Bullish

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RSI-14

VOLATILITY

EMA-20 DELTA

BTC PRICE

Why This Regime Reading

RSI-14 MOMENTUM

REALIZED VOLATILITY

PRICE vs EMA-20

SIGNAL DECOMPOSITION

RSI

VOLATILITY

EMA DELTA

Regime Transition Signals

Key thresholds and catalysts that would shift the current regime

TO WATCH

RSI Threshold

DEVELOPING

Volatility Trend

TO WATCH

EMA-20 Reclaim

DEVELOPING

Regime Duration

REGIME HISTORY (90 DAYS)

COMPOSITE SCORE (20 DAYS)

Scoring Model & Data Sources

Composite score combines three equally weighted signals: RSI-14 momentum (measures trend strength from 0-100, where sub-30 is oversold and 70+ is overbought), 20-day realized volatility (annualized standard deviation of daily log returns, with 40% as the calm/turbulent threshold), and EMA-20 delta (percentage distance from the 20-day exponential moving average, positive means price trades above trend). The score maps to four regimes: Bull Trend (positive momentum + elevated vol), Bear Trend (negative momentum + low vol), High Volatility (negative momentum + high vol, typically panic or capitulation), and Ranging (neutral momentum + low vol, consolidation phase). The radar chart plots momentum on the X-axis and volatility on the Y-axis, creating four quadrants. Data sourced from BTC spot price feeds, updated daily. The 90-day lookback captures approximately 2-3 full regime cycles.